Out of Reach Sales Goals

The goal is 500,000 by 2013. Based on the current numbers, it ain’t gonna happen.

Nissan Auto has a goal to have sold at least half a million Nissan Leafs annually by the year 2013. I guess that would be by the end of 2013. That gives them 15 months to rack up sales somewhere near 450,000. A remember, that 500,000 is an annual goal.

GM has expressed a similar, although not nearly as lofty, goal. GM’s goal is to sell 10,000 Volts in 2011 and 20,000 in 2012. Based on the current sales pace for 2011, they are going to fall well short of their 10,000. So far GM has sold approximately 3100 Volts (through Aug) and they are averaging about 400 sold each month (Jul and Aug sales numbers are off significantly). To reach the goal of 10,000 GM will have to sell roughly 6,900 units over the next four month. It ain’t gonna happen. They would need to sell over 1,700 Volts each month to reach the goal. That is quadruple the current rate of sales.

While Nissan has buried GM in this head to head competition, they too are not going to reach their goals. Sales of the Leaf would have to exceed 41.5K units per month. So far their best month is June with somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,700 Leafs sold. I know I am comparing this year’s sales numbers with next year’s projections, but something dramatic will have to happen to get sales even remotely close to the 500K projections based on this year’s numbers.

Costco Removing Charging Stations

Want another example of how the whole electric vehicle (EV) fad has run its course? Take a look at this article.  Seems that Costco is removing charging stations from their parking lots due to lack of use.

“We were early supporters of electric cars, going back as far as 15 years. But nobody ever uses them,” said Dennis Hoover, the general manager for Costco in northern California, in a telephone interview. “At our Flosm store, the manager said he hadn’t seen anybody use the E.V. charging in a full year. At our store in Vacaville, where we had six chargers, one person plugged in once a week.” (Source: New York Times)

So how about that demand for green technology? I keep saying it and will keep on saying it; until the technology catches up with the needs of the driving public (distance, charging times, etc.), these are going to be nothing more than fashion statements by greenies who have money to burn.

Electric Vehicle Dynamics Changing

Could it be that all my blogging (and of course Mike at Confederate Yankee) about the Chevy Volt has had an impact? Of course I josh a little. There have been many bloggers, both big (Like Mike’s) and small (Like mine), who have taken on electric vehicles (EV) like the Chevy Volt and to a lesser degree the Nissan Leaf. All of that press pointing out the pros and cons (mostly cons) looks like it is having an impact.

According to a story from The Detroit Bureau (through Yahoo News) interest in the Chevy Volt and other electric-type vehicles is waning.

Through the end of July, Chevy has sold about 3,200 of the plug-in hybrids compared to 4,500 Nissan Leafs. But both makers have begun ramping up production, General Motors forecasting sales of around 16,000 for the year as a whole – including a small number of Volt clone Opel Amperas targeted at markets abroad.

But a new study by CNW marketing raises a red flag, finding that the potential buyers GM is most counting on are rapidly losing interest in the Volt. In March, 21% of so-called Early Adapters said they were “very likely” to consider buying a Volt, while 38.1% said they were “likely” to do the same. That slipped to 14.6% saying “very likely” and 31.1% “likely.”  Among EV enthusiasts, reports the CNW study, the number of those likely or very likely to consider Volt fell from a combined 71% to 51% during the same four-month period. (Source: Yahoo News)

Emote Your Greenieness

Ok, so now that we have pointed out logically the issues with electric vehicles (EV) let’s move over to the emotional side of the argument. We’ll still use facts and logic, but we are going to throw in some touchy-feely stuff so the liberals and progressives can feel at home here on PACNW Righty.

I will never argue that doing the right by the environment is a bad thing, unless doing the right thing for the environment is wrong in every other aspect of our lives. Recycling is a GREAT thing. There is little to no impact on the individual and it just makes sense to recycle. We are a planet with finite resources; why not use things over and over again? Cleaner air and water are also good goals to pursue. The impact on an individual’s health is positive. And the economic impacts, while there, are not always felt directly.

This push for greener cars is going to have a direct impact on the individual. It is going to years (maybe decades) before the EV is affordable for most. $43K to $50K for what is essentially a subcompact hatchback is not affordable. At this price range we are talking about vehicles such as Cadillac’s and well equipped trucks and SUVs. In other words; family cars and entry-level luxury models. When young people are starting out, they are looking at cars priced in the $10K to $15K range. Not many of these cars could be considered good for a family much larger than a toddler or two. Want to fit two teenage boys in the back? Forget about it!

Another Reason Green Technology Isn't Ready

Over the past several months I have blogged a lot about the Chevy Volt, the “electric” (actually a Hybrid) vehicle (EV) made by Government Motors. (Mike at Confederate Yankee has also been taking this on) There is also another EV being pushed by the environmentalists as the solution to all of our fossil fuel woes (drive an EV, but don’t exact our own resources). I have focused on the Volt because this vehicle is made in the US, by a US company, and is also a favorite of the environmental crowd. There is one significant difference between the Volt and the Leaf: The Leaf is a pure EV with no gas engine “backup” as with the Volt. Today, I am going to focus a bit on the Nissan Leaf.

A newspaper over in England, The Telegraph, has a short article on the cost of battery replacement for Nissan Leaf. (h/t: Doug Ross at Director Blue and Soylent Green)

Nissan has admitted that owners of a Leaf, which costs £26,000 ($42,486) after the government grant, may need to replace the battery after a few years, depending on how it has been treated, The Times reported.

The battery’s capacity can decrease significantly if the owner repeatedly uses a fast-charge point.

In the latest episode of Top Gear (UK Version) Jeremy Clarkson was shown running out of power and having to be pushed into the center of Lincoln, which has no public charging points (You Tube Video here and here).

Andy Palmer, Nissan GB’s senior vice-president, told the paper that the lithium ion battery is made up of 48 modules. He said that each would cost £404 ($660) to replace, making £19,392 ($31,688) for the entire battery pack. He said that most owners would not need a new battery for at least 10 years because electric vehicles should mainly be used for short journeys. (Source: The Telegraph UK)

Nissan Takes A Swipe at Chevy Volt

Absolutely awesome dig from Nissan on the Chevy Volt.

Not a supporter of the electric vehicle. The infrastructure is not in place, the cost is too high for the vehicle, the size of the vehicle is not designed for a family larger than four (the kids need to be young, or short) and the distance from a plug is miniscule compared to gas power vehicles. But I do like Nissan’s attempt to highlight that fact that the Chevy Volt is a hybrid, nothing more.